The use of bank-owned life insurance (BOLI) has more than tripled since 2001 and has caught the attention of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. We find increases in BOLI lead to higher levels of liquidity risk, credit risk, and interest rate risk. Robustness tests confirm these results and suggest over and under investment in BOLI and use of BOLI as a tax shelter contribute to risk increases. Results indicate that the concerns expressed by regulators are warranted, and suggest insurance may not always have the intended effect of reducing firm risk because of unintended consequences or misuse
Topic: Financial Intermediaries
Subtopics: Analyst forecasts · VCs · Banking
We examine how analysts’ changing incentives driven by changes in market uncertainty affect analyst output. Analysts issue more optimistically biased forecasts and buy recommendations under high market uncertainty (VIX). The lower reputational costs and larger benefits of optimistic output explain the increased optimistic output: Analysts are less likely to be penalized for inaccuracy and can stimulate more trading activity from optimistically biased output when market uncertainty is high. We find that the likelihood of analysts’ turnover decreases, while the trading volume associated with optimistic output increases, with VIX. No evidence suggests that analysts’ self-selection affects our findings on optimism and uncertainty.
We contribute to the literature on debt collection agencies on collecting delinquent trade credits in two ways: First, we present an estimation of the collection rates. The distribution of collection rates exhibits a mean of about 65% and a strong bimodality with peaks at the very ends of the distribution. Second, we investigate potential determinants of the collection success. We find that collection rates are positively related to the exposure at default and to prior debtor-specific collection rates. In contrast, the age of the account and if apllicable prior experience with the debtor have a negative impact on collection rates.
The severity and complexity of the recent financial crisis has motivated the need for understanding the relationships between sovereign ratings and bank credit ratings. This is the first study to examine the impact of the “international” spillover of sovereign risk to bank credit risk through both a ratings channel and an asset holdings channel. We find evidence that confirms both channels. In the first case, the downgrade of sovereign ratings in GIIPS countries leads to rating downgrades of banks in the peripheral countries. The second channel indicates that larger asset holdings of GIIPS debt increases the credit risk of cross-border banks and, hence, the probabilities of downgrade.
We investigate the career dynamics of high-tech entrepreneurs by analyzing the exit choice of entrepreneurs: to act as a business angel, to found another firm, or to become dependently employed. Our detailed data from CrunchBase indicate that founders are more likely to stick with entrepreneurship as a serial entrepreneur or as an angel investor in cases where the founder had prior experience either in founding other startups or working for a startup, or had a ‘jack-of-all-trades’ education.
We find that institutions trade in the same direction as target price changes based on 6,415 U.S. firms from 1999 to 2011, even after controlling changes in stock recommendations and earnings forecasts. The impact of target price changes on institutional trading is more pronounced for small firms, firms followed by few analysts, and illiquid firms, and is mainly limited to transient institutions. We do not find any outperformance for institutions to follow analysts’ target price forecasts, suggesting that institutions could find it easier to justify their investment decisions by following analyst forecasts, although such trading does not result in outperformance.
We use data from the past 30 years of takeover activity in the U.S. banking industry to test competing neoclassical and misvaluation merger theories. Test results are consistent with evidence in the literature that merger activity is significantly related to both structural industry change and stock price misvaluation. Our primary contribution is to show that changes in misvaluation reflect a rise in industry-wide risk taking and that increases in risk originate from changes in industry structure due to deregulation. A measure of bank risk taking subsumes the power of stock price misvaluation to explain subsequent merger activity.
Using a sample of venture capital (VC)-backed initial public offerings (IPOs), we analyze the role played by perceived valuation changes on IPO underpricing. We find that perceived valuation change from the last pre-IPO VC round to the IPO affects IPO underpricing in a nonlinear way. Further analysis indicates that information-based theories, not behavioral biases, explain this nonlinearity. We also find that the previously documented partial adjustment effect and its nonlinear impact on IPO underpricing are related to the trajectory of the perceived valuation changes, which stands in stark contrast to prior evidence of the importance of behavioral biases.
The financial press suggests that information is commonly leaked prior to analyst recommendations. We examine the impact that three regulatory actions (Regulation Fair Disclosure, Global Analysts Research Settlement, and the legal case against Galleon Group) have on information leakage prior to analyst recommendations. We find that all three regulatory actions have significantly reduced the leakage of information prior to analyst recommendations, even after controlling for several characteristics that explain the variation in information leakage. Our results are robust when applying an alternative method of measuring information leakage, and when forming various samples of analyst recommendations based on different criteria.